Bitcoin’s Remarkable Recovery: From $15K to $100K in Just Two Years

Crypto’s Big Comeback: Bitcoin Could Reach $1.7 Million by October 2025
Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle: Predicting a $1 Million Future
From FTX Collapse to $100K: How Bitcoin’s Growth Mirrors Previous Cycles
Bitcoin’s Surprising Rise: What the 2015-2018 Cycle Can Teach Us About 2025

The collapse of FTX might seem like a distant memory, when bitcoin (BTC) plummeted to around $15,500 in November 2022. The sentiment at that time was filled with extreme fear, and the industry believed it might never recover.

But just over two years later, bitcoin is trading above $100,000, with a new presumably crypto-friendly U.S. administration in charge. Donald Trump is now officially the 47th President of the U.S., though he has yet to announce any specific crypto policies.

One key area of discussion around bitcoin is the four-year cycle analysis, which revolves around its halving program. This program reduces the supply of bitcoin every four years, often leading to significant price appreciation the year after the halving. The current cycle is following patterns similar to the previous two.

So far, bitcoin has risen about 550% from its low during the FTX collapse (shown by the black line on the chart). The chart also shows that during the current cycle, similar price growth is being observed when compared to the 2015-2018 cycles (blue line), where bitcoin’s price increased by a comparable percentage after the cycle low in January 2015.

It’s important to note that Glassnode data uses the closing price at 00:00 UTC, which may differ from other trading platforms.

The green line on the chart shows that in the 2018-2022 cycle, bitcoin was up around 1,300% at the same point, more than double the gain seen so far in the current cycle.

If bitcoin continues to follow the pattern of the 2015-2018 cycle, it could finish around 1,100% higher from the cycle low by the end of Q1 2025, putting one bitcoin at $186,000. The peak of this cycle could occur around October 2025, reaching an 11,000% increase, potentially pushing the price to around $1.7 million per bitcoin.

Another way to assess this pattern is by comparing bitcoin’s performance to the terms of U.S. presidents. According to a post by Bitcoin Archive on X, bitcoin rose 20x during Donald Trump’s first term. A more modest return of 10x from its current price would place bitcoin at approximately $1 million.

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