The Signal That Crashed XRP in 2022 Is Back — Glassnode Sounds the Alarm

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has flagged concerning parallels between XRP’s current market structure and conditions preceding its sharp 2022 decline, triggering renewed bearish caution among traders and analysts.

Recent Glassnode insights, particularly from mid-to-late January 2026 (with echoes persisting into early February), highlight a key pattern: short-term holders (1 week to 1 month) have accumulated XRP at lower average cost bases than the 6-12 month cohort. This inversion creates overhead supply pressure, as mid-term holders—often from prior highs—face unrealized losses and may sell into rallies or breakdowns. The setup mirrors February 2022, when XRP traded near $0.78–$0.88 before a 60%+ crash to around $0.30 amid broader market turmoil.

Additional red flags include XRP’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) dropping below 1.0—from 1.16 in July 2025 to 0.96 by early February 2026—signaling widespread realized losses and “panic selling” as holders capitulate. Aggregate holder profitability has turned negative, with the realized price (average cost basis) around $1.48, a level reminiscent of April 2022 bearish phases.

Exchange flows show mixed but concerning trends: recent net inflows (e.g., +396 million XRP over 30 days in early February) indicate rising selling intent, though longer-term data notes significant outflows in 2025 reducing balances to multi-year lows. Network activity remains subdued relative to price speculation, with declining active addresses in some periods contributing to divergence.

Derivatives reflect caution, with negative funding rates on platforms signaling short bias. XRP trades around $1.44–$1.51 as of early February 2026 (down from recent highs near $2+), testing supports amid macro uncertainty and sector weakness.

Glassnode and analysts stress that while patterns echo 2022, differences exist—higher price floors, potential regulatory tailwinds for Ripple, and ETF inflows could alter outcomes. Still, the reemergence of this structural weakness underscores fragility: if overhead supply isn’t absorbed, further downside volatility looms.

The signal reminds observers that on-chain metrics often foreshadow price stress, urging vigilance as XRP navigates this pivotal phase.