Trump Adviser Predicts No Bitcoin Bear Market for Years Despite August Dip

David Bailey, Bitcoin Inc. CEO and former cryptocurrency adviser to US President Donald Trump, declared on August 23, 2025, that Bitcoin will avoid a bear market for several years, citing unprecedented institutional adoption. Despite Bitcoin dropping to $112,000 in August, a 10% decline from its $124,000 peak, Bailey remains optimistic, arguing that sovereigns, banks, and corporations are driving demand, with less than 0.01% of the total addressable market captured.

Bailey, founder of Bitcoin Magazine, emphasized on X that institutional holdings have surged past $100 billion, primarily through ETFs and corporate treasuries like Strategy’s 628,946 BTC. He dismisses the recent dip as futures manipulation, not a demand shift, and predicts prices could climb toward $1 million per BTC. However, analysts like CK Zheng of ZX Squared Capital warn that Bitcoin’s correlation with equities could trigger a downturn if stocks falter, with potential Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026 as a catalyst.

Historical data shows Bitcoin often dips in September, with a 7.44% drop in 2017, but analysts like Ryan McMillin of Merkle Tree Capital see a market top in Q2 2026, potentially followed by a mild bear phase if global liquidity reverses. Despite risks from overleveraged firms, experts like Dan Tapiero predict a 2026 boom, with 82% of Morgan Stanley’s surveyed investors still crypto-less, signaling room for growth.

Bailey’s bold claim of no Bitcoin bear market until at least 2026 hinges on institutional enthusiasm, but analysts urge caution amid cyclical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties, advising investors to monitor key support levels like $110,000.