Harvard Economist Eats His Words: Bitcoin Didn’t Crash to $100

In 2018, Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff predicted Bitcoin would plummet to $100, citing its use in illicit activities and expected regulatory crackdowns. Seven years later, with Bitcoin trading above $113,000 after peaking at $124,128, Rogoff admitted his forecast was wildly inaccurate in a recent post on X. His mea culpa, reported by CryptoNews on August 20, 2025, highlights three miscalculations: underestimating Bitcoin’s role in the $20 trillion global underground economy, overestimating U.S. regulatory restrictions, and overlooking conflicts of interest among pro-crypto regulators.

Back in 2018, Bitcoin was reeling from a high of nearly $20,000 to around $11,000, fueling Rogoff’s skepticism. He argued it lacked traction as a transaction medium and was primarily a tool for money laundering. Contrary to his predictions, Bitcoin surged, driven by institutional adoption, with firms like BlackRock offering spot Bitcoin ETFs—ironically, Harvard’s endowment invested $116 million in one such fund.

Rogoff’s admission reflects a broader shift. Bitcoin’s market cap now rivals major assets, ranking as the sixth-largest globally. Regulatory frameworks in the U.S., UK, and Asia have evolved, normalizing crypto’s financial role. Retail adoption has also soared, with Bitcoin viewed as an inflation hedge. Posts on X echo this sentiment, with users like @mikealfred noting prolonged bullish cycles driven by institutional flows and macroeconomic factors.

Despite recent volatility, with Bitcoin dipping below $113,000 alongside Nasdaq declines, experts see resilience. Rogoff’s error underscores Bitcoin’s unpredictable ascent, challenging traditional economic models. As the crypto market matures, his retraction marks a pivotal acknowledgment of Bitcoin’s transformation from a speculative asset to a mainstream financial contender.