Will Bitcoin Hold $119K? RSI Weakens While Fed Cut Odds Near 92%

Bitcoin (BTC) hovers near the critical $119,000 support level, with traders on edge as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips to 47, signaling weakening bullish momentum. This dip follows a retreat from a peak of $123,236, raising concerns about a potential drop to $115,650–$117,650 if the $119K floor breaks, per Cointelegraph and TradingView analyses.

Despite technical headwinds, macroeconomic factors offer hope. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 92.6% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut to 4.00–4.25% on September 17, fueled by July’s CPI holding at 2.7%, below the 2.8% forecast. Lower rates typically boost risk assets like Bitcoin by reducing the appeal of yield-bearing investments. However, a hotter-than-expected PPI at 0.9% (versus 0.2% forecast) slightly tempered rate cut optimism, dropping odds from 99.8% to 90.5%.

Analysts at Matrixport highlight $116,817 as a key support, warning that a break could trigger a deeper correction to $95,000, especially with bearish patterns like a double top at $122K. Yet, bullish signals persist: a daily chart bullish flag breakout and whale accumulation (94% of BTC supply in profit) suggest a potential rally to $130,000–$137,000 if $120,000 is reclaimed.

CryptoQuant notes low selling pressure from long-term holders, with Nakamoto and MicroStrategy boosting reserves by $1 billion and $18 million, respectively. With upcoming PPI data and Fed statements looming, Bitcoin’s next move hinges on holding $119K. Stay tuned for updates on BTC’s price trajectory.