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Asset manager VanEck remains optimistic on Bitcoin heading into 2026, with portfolio manager David Schassler predicting the cryptocurrency could emerge as a “top performer” after significantly underperforming equities in 2025.
In VanEck’s “Plan for 2026: Predictions from Our Portfolio Managers” report, released in mid-December 2025, Schassler highlighted Bitcoin’s roughly 50% year-to-date lag behind the Nasdaq 100 Index. He views this dislocation as a setup for strong relative outperformance next year, driven by returning global liquidity, accelerating currency debasement, and demand for scarce hard assets.
Schassler notes Bitcoin historically responds sharply to liquidity cycles and positions it alongside gold—which he forecasts reaching $5,000 per ounce in 2026—as a hedge against fiscal pressures and money printing to fund liabilities.
Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel adds nuance, describing signals as “mixed but constructive.” Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains intact post its early October 2025 peak, suggesting 2026 is more likely a consolidation year than a melt-up or collapse. Volatility has halved from prior cycles, implying shallower drawdowns.
The firm sees opportunities beyond spot Bitcoin, including Bitcoin mining’s capital-intensive pivot to AI/high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure and selective growth in stablecoin-driven B2B payments.
VanEck recommends disciplined 1–3% portfolio allocations via dollar-cost averaging, with opportunistic buys during dislocations. While short-term volatility persists amid tighter liquidity, the outlook frames Bitcoin’s current weakness as temporary, positioning it for a meaningful rebound in a maturing market.
