The Triangle of Trade: US, China and India

When global trade is discussed, three giants dominate the landscape: the United States, China, and India. Each plays a distinct role—America offers market clout, China delivers manufacturing might, and India brings entrepreneurial zeal. But the interplay between them now shapes the survival and growth of industries like mine.

Numbers That Tell the Story

In fiscal year 2024–25, India’s exports to the United States surged by 11.6 %, reaching $86.5 billion, while imports from the US grew 7.4 % to $45.3 billion, resulting in a healthy trade surplus of $41 billion  . More recently, in June 2025, exports to the US spiked 23.5 % to about $8.3 billion, while imports dropped 10.6 % to roughly $4 billion  .

Contrast this with the India–China equation: in the same period, India’s imports from China stood at $113.5 billion, while exports plummeted to $14.3 billion, deepening the trade deficit to a staggering $99.2 billion  . The imbalance is glaring.

What It Means for My Industry

For someone in the synthetic-leather business, these figures resonate daily. The US is an aspirational target—demand is there, and when I can crack it, the margins and reliability are worth every paperwork hurdle. Yet, new US tariffs—up to 50 % on Indian goods, effective later this month—threaten to upend exporters: about $48.2 billion worth of Indian goods will face these levies  . If sustained, they could hamper our ability to expand in that trusted market.

Meanwhile, China remains our chief supplier. Machinery, technical know-how, and key chemicals often come from there; a study even found that a 1 % rise in Chinese share of imports correlates with a 0.31 % increase in output, confirming—paradoxically—that we depend on them to produce at all  . Yet they simultaneously flood our markets with synthetic leather and finished synthetic-leather products—bags, accessories—that arrive cheaper and faster, undercutting our prices and dimming our spirit.

Balancing Act: The Dilemma

Should we open doors wider to China? It brings low-cost machinery, raw materials, and swifter project ramp-up. But the flipside is eroding domestic craftsmanship and losing control over the value chain. The challenge is not simply choosing between China or the US. It is choosing India—building capacity, quality, and speed at scale, so we compete, not cede, in both price and pride.

Attitudes and Practices India Must Embrace

We must cultivate a fierce focus on innovation, quality assurance, and speed—building not just factories, but agile ecosystems. Encourage local sourcing, skill development, and export diversification. Above all, foster the belief that self-confidence and strategic independence, not dependency, will carry our industries forward.

– Ritu Singal
Chairman cum Managing Director
Raglan Group