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Despite discussions about the U.S. creating a strategic Bitcoin (BTC) reserve, prediction market Polymarket gives it only a 16% chance of happening within the first 100 days of Donald Trump’s administration.

David Sacks, a key figure in Trump’s crypto policy team, recently confirmed that the idea is under review. “President Trump has asked us to study that issue, so we are not ready to comment on it yet. But it’s one of the things our working groups are going to look at,” Sacks said in an interview on Fox News.

While the White House is still in the early stages of consideration, Senator Cynthia Lummis has already introduced a separate bill aimed at establishing a U.S. Bitcoin reserve. Her proposal suggests purchasing up to 200,000 BTC annually over five years, partially funded by revaluing the Federal Reserve’s gold reserves. The bill is currently under review by the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

Supporters of a U.S. Bitcoin reserve include MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor, who believes it could help strengthen the dollar. “The best way to protect the dollar is to retire debt and become rich,” Saylor said during a conference last November. “The next best way is to ensure that if anyone considers an alternative asset to U.S. Treasury bills, you own it.”

Meanwhile, Texas is already moving forward with its own strategic Bitcoin reserve. According to Polymarket, there’s a 53% chance that the state will approve a bill to establish a BTC reserve in 2025.

While federal efforts are still in the exploratory phase, individual states like Texas may take the lead in integrating Bitcoin into their financial strategy.

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