History Repeats? CoinShares Warns of Bitcoin Crash Echoing 2020

In a cautionary note that’s raising eyebrows across the crypto community, a leading analyst at CoinShares has suggested that Bitcoin may be on the verge of repeating its dramatic 2020 crash-and-rebound pattern.

James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, pointed to eerily similar market conditions that preceded the March 2020 crypto crash—a time when Bitcoin plummeted nearly 50% in a matter of days before staging one of the most impressive rallies in its history.

“While current macroeconomic indicators are not identical, the sentiment-driven volatility and liquidity constraints we’re observing feel familiar,” said Butterfill. “There’s potential for a sharp downturn followed by a strong recovery, much like what we saw five years ago.”

Bitcoin has seen a rollercoaster start to 2025, fluctuating between $60,000 and $75,000 amid shifting regulatory landscapes, rate hike concerns, and rising geopolitical tensions. The CoinShares analysis warns that if investor sentiment continues to sour, a sudden pullback could trigger cascading sell-offs—just as in 2020.

However, Butterfill emphasized that the pattern doesn’t guarantee doom. “What’s important to note is that after the 2020 crash, Bitcoin rebounded quickly and went on to hit all-time highs. Investors who held through the dip were rewarded.”

Still, the warning comes at a delicate time. With spot Bitcoin ETFs gaining traction and institutional interest at an all-time high, any sharp move—up or down—could have outsized effects.

Some market watchers are downplaying the comparison, noting that the crypto landscape has matured significantly since 2020. “Liquidity is better, infrastructure is stronger, and the investor base is broader,” said Melinda Hayes, an independent crypto strategist. “But that doesn’t mean we’re immune to fear-driven flash crashes.”

For now, the message is clear: buckle up. Whether Bitcoin follows its 2020 path or carves a new one, volatility remains the only certainty.