Gemini Set to Launch Prediction Market Contracts, Says Bloomberg

Gemini is quietly courting Wall Street quants and retail degens alike, drafting plans for **U.S.-regulated prediction contracts** that could let users wager on everything from Fed rate cuts to NFL playoffs, insiders tell CoinDesk.

Three sources inside the Winklevoss-founded exchange say Gemini has hired two former Kalshi engineers and is stress-testing smart-contract logic on its private testnet. A launch teaser—code-named “Gemini Oracles”—already appears in the latest iOS app beta.

“Event contracts are the missing DeFi primitive,” Gemini’s head of product, Dave Abner, hinted on stage at Permissionless IV yesterday. “We’re building the on-ramp Wall Street will actually use.”

The prize is massive. Polymarket’s election book topped **$3.2 billion** in 2024; Kalshi cleared $1 billion post-CFTC nod. Bernstein estimates the total addressable market hits **$15 billion** by 2028—if the CFTC green-lights crypto-native venues.

Gemini’s edge: its New York BitLicense and 40+ state money-transmitter permits let it skirt the offshore stigma plaguing Polymarket. Traders could settle bets in USDC with same-day withdrawals and FDIC-insured fiat ramps.

Regulatory hurdles loom. The CFTC must still approve Gemini’s derivatives clearing organization (DCO) application, filed October 21. Sources say commissioners want “know-your-oracle” rules to prevent front-running.

Rival whispers grow louder. Coinbase Derivatives filed a similar product last quarter; Kraken is rumored to list Manifold-style markets by March.

Still, Gemini’s brand could flip the script. Google Trends for “prediction market” spiked 340 % after Trump’s win—retail is ready.

“2026 is the year betting meets blockchain on main street,” Abner closed. “Gemini just wants to be the house that never sleeps.”