Galaxy Research: Bitcoin’s $100K Milestone Still Elusive After Inflation Adjustment

Bitcoin reached a nominal all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025, but when adjusted for inflation, it fell short of the symbolic $100,000 milestone, according to Galaxy Research.

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, highlighted in a December 22, 2025 analysis that Bitcoin’s peak equates to just $99,848 when recalculated in 2020 dollars. This adjustment uses U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to account for the dollar’s loss in purchasing power since early 2020—before massive pandemic-era monetary stimulus.

The U.S. dollar has lost approximately 20% of its value since 2020, with goods now costing about 1.25 times more, per CPI metrics. Thorn’s calculation reflects cumulative inflation, showing that nominal price highs do not fully capture real economic gains.

Nominal vs. Real Purchasing Power
Markets celebrate round numbers like $100K for their psychological impact on sentiment and trading behavior. However, Thorn emphasizes the distinction: nominal prices reflect current dollars, while inflation-adjusted (real) prices reveal true purchasing power over time.

This perspective is particularly relevant for Bitcoin, often touted as an inflation hedge. The analysis provides context for both bulls—suggesting the rally from 2022 lows was less overheated than nominal figures imply—and bears, who may argue it underperformed relative to currency debasement expectations.

Implications for Investors
Thorn’s insight encourages recalibrating milestones amid persistent inflation. While $100K remains a key psychological level driving media and retail interest, real thresholds shift with macroeconomic conditions.

Looking ahead, investors may prioritize long-term metrics like adoption, network growth, and Bitcoin’s role in preserving value against fiat erosion over chasing headline nominal targets.

Bottom Line
Galaxy Research underscores that Bitcoin’s celebrated six-figure breakthrough was nominal only. In real, inflation-adjusted terms using 2020 dollars, the cryptocurrency peaked just below $100K—reminding the market that economic reality often diverges from symbolic triumphs.