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Bitcoin’s wild ride continues as Bitwise Europe’s research head André Dragosch warns of a “COVID-era” macro setup resurfacing, pricing in recessionary gloom while global growth whispers a bullish twist—potentially catapulting BTC to $100,000+ by year-end. With BTC dipping 17% to sub-$90,000 in late November before clawing back above $100,000, Dragosch’s X post on November 28 ignited trader frenzy: “The last time I saw such an asymmetric risk-reward was during COVID.”
Fact-check confirms the echo: In March 2020, pandemic panic cratered BTC from $8,000 to $4,000—a 50% bloodbath—before a sixfold surge to $29,000 by December, fueled by Fed stimulus and liquidity floods. Today’s parallel? BTC’s valuation screams 2022 FTX-crash bearishness—aggressive Fed tightening, $19 billion October liquidations, and Trump tariff jitters—yet surveys signal accelerating 2026 growth, mirroring post-COVID vibes. Dragosch dubs it “trapped energy,” like a submerged ball ready to rocket.
For traders, it’s a high-stakes siren: 75% of historical peaks-correction setups precede monster rallies, per Dragosch’s stats. Quick dips offer entry points—think $85,000–$86,000 pullbacks—but volatility spikes demand stop-losses and light leverage. Long-haul HODLers? Fundamentals shine: ETF inflows ($2.92 lakh crore YTD) and institutional FOMO could extend the bull through 2026, outpacing Nifty’s 22.7x P/E.
External wildcards amplify the drama: Geopolitical flares, regulatory nods, and central bank buys (China’s 12th straight month) could turbocharge the rebound, though overbought RSI at 77 hints at near-term wobbles. As Van de Poppe notes, climbing higher shrinks retest odds of recent lows.
Key nuggets: BTC’s asymmetry screams buy-the-dip; risk 5–15% portfolio allocation with bonds for ballast. In this liquidity-laced arena, COVID ghosts signal history’s remix—not repeat. Will 2025 crown BTC king again?
