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Bitcoin’s Long-Term Outlook: Stability or More Volatility?
Bitcoin Holds Firm Despite Global Market Turmoil
Is Bitcoin’s $40K Floor Unbreakable? Experts Weigh In
Bitcoin’s average acquisition cost surged to an all-time high of $40,980 per BTC by the end of 2024, according to ARK Invest’s Big Ideas 2025 report. This marks an 86% increase over the previous year, pushing the total market value of Bitcoin holdings to $811.7 billion. Investors closely monitor this metric, as many consider it a long-term fair value indicator for Bitcoin.
Industry experts, including Blockstream’s Adam Back, suggest that Bitcoin’s “floor price” is now above $40,000, reinforcing its importance as a key support level.
Bitcoin’s 200-Week Moving Average Signals Stability
Another crucial metric, Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, hit $43,983 on February 11, suggesting that Bitcoin’s floor price may be approaching $44,000. Analysts rely on this metric to assess long-term price trends and filter out short-term volatility. Adam Back highlighted that historically, this level has served as a strong price base, making the $40,000 mark more than just a psychological threshold—it’s a critical support zone.
Bitcoin Faces Short-Term Pressure Amid Economic Uncertainty
While Bitcoin’s long-term outlook appears stronger, short-term price action remains sensitive to global economic events.
On February 9, Bitcoin stayed above $95,000 despite a major sell-off triggered by escalating U.S.-China trade tensions.
This was one of Bitcoin’s largest intraday drops since the Three Arrows Capital collapse in 2022.
The event reinforced Bitcoin’s vulnerability to macroeconomic shifts and market volatility.
Inflation Data & Fed Policy Could Influence Bitcoin’s Next Move
Bitcoin’s next price movements may be driven by economic data, particularly the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, released on February 12.
Iliya Kalchev from Nexo warns that higher-than-expected CPI numbers could raise concerns about interest rate hikes, potentially impacting Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.
Additional inflation reports from Japan, Germany, and the U.K. could also shape global market sentiment toward Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s Future: Strong Support or Continued Volatility?
Despite the recent market fluctuations, Bitcoin’s rising cost basis and solid support at the 200-week moving average suggest a more stable price foundation.
While short-term volatility remains, these indicators could help Bitcoin withstand economic pressures, making it a stronger long-term asset. However, Bitcoin’s future trajectory will ultimately depend on global economic trends and investor sentiment.
