Bitcoin’s Historic Trend Points to a Strong Rally—Here’s Why

Could BTC Hit $120K? Market Data Suggests a Bullish Breakout
Bitcoin’s Next Surge? Key Indicator Aligns with Bullish Options Market

Bitcoin (BTC) may have significant upside potential as historical trends tied to a key technical indicator suggest continued bullish momentum—despite renewed inflationary concerns in the U.S.

The 200-week simple moving average (SMA), a widely watched metric that smooths short-term price fluctuations to reveal long-term trends, currently stands at $44,200, according to TradingView.

Although this marks an all-time high for the 200-week SMA, it remains well below the last bull market peak of $69,000 in November 2021.

Why This Matters?
Historical data suggests that bull markets typically end when the 200-week SMA reaches the previous cycle’s all-time high.

The 2021 bull market concluded when the 200-week SMA hit $19,000, the peak of the 2017 bull run.
Likewise, the 2017 rally ended in December when the SMA reached $1,200, a record set four years earlier.
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin’s current range between $90,000 and $110,000 could lead to a strong upward breakout.

Options Market Signals Bullish Sentiment
Further reinforcing this outlook, options pricing on Deribit indicates bullish sentiment:

✔ Call options (bullish bets) are priced higher than put options (bearish bets), reflecting expectations of rising BTC prices.
✔ Most open interest is in call options at strikes above BTC’s current market price of $96,700.
✔ The $120K call option is the most popular, with a notional open interest exceeding $1.8 billion.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?
If historical patterns hold true and the options market sentiment aligns with the 200-week SMA’s trajectory, Bitcoin could be setting the stage for a new rally—potentially pushing toward $120K and beyond.

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