Bitcoin Struggles Below $100K Amid ETF Outflows and Economic Uncertainty

Bitcoin Faces Retail Slump, But Whales Keep Buying—What’s Next?
Bitcoin’s Retail Market Shrinks as ETFs Bleed Millions—Will Whales Save the Rally?
Bitcoin in Limbo: Falling Retail Interest, ETF Outflows, and Whale Accumulation

Bitcoin’s retail market is experiencing a downturn, with the number of wallets holding a non-zero balance dropping to a five-month low of 52.45 million, according to Glassnode. This decline is notable compared to the 52.56 million wallets recorded on Jan. 20, the day Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $109,000.

ETF Outflows Signal Market Uncertainty
In addition to declining retail participation, U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs have faced significant outflows, losing a total of $494 million over three consecutive days. The largest single-day outflow occurred on Feb. 12, when $251 million exited the market.

Trading activity in Bitcoin ETFs has also slowed, with just $2.58 billion in total volume on Feb. 12. BlackRock’s iShares Trust (IBIT) saw under $2 billion in trading volume, making it one of the least active ETFs, while Fidelity’s Bitcoin fund (FBTC) recorded a $102 million outflow, the highest among individual funds. The data suggests that ETF-based Bitcoin investments—mainly used for trading—are losing momentum.

Whale Accumulation Points to Possible Stabilization
Despite these challenges, large Bitcoin holders (whales) have been accumulating the digital asset. On Feb. 5, whales added 39,620 BTC (worth approximately $3.79 billion) as Bitcoin’s price dipped below $97,600.

Analysts like Juan Pellicer from IntoTheBlock view this whale activity as a bullish signal, suggesting that the market may be approaching its bottom. This pattern resembles past market corrections, where whales accumulated during price dips before a recovery.

Bitcoin’s Stagnation and Key Resistance Levels
Bitcoin’s price remains relatively stagnant, hovering around $96,000 and struggling to break out of its trading range between $90,000 and its all-time high of $109,000.

Analysts such as Iliya Kalchev from Nexo indicate that Bitcoin’s growth potential remains limited unless it decisively breaks above $100,000. Until then, the market is likely to continue consolidating.

Geopolitical Factors Add to Market Uncertainty
Bitcoin’s future is further complicated by global economic tensions, particularly the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute. New tariffs and trade restrictions have left investors cautious, with upcoming talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping expected to shape market sentiment.

Given Bitcoin’s reputation as a macro-sensitive asset, these geopolitical factors could indirectly impact its price movements.

Where Does Bitcoin Go From Here?
While Bitcoin’s retail market and ETF sector are facing headwinds, whale accumulation suggests that a potential market stabilization could be underway. However, the lack of significant upward movement combined with macro uncertainties means that Bitcoin’s future remains unpredictable.

For now, Bitcoin traders and investors are watching key levels like $90,000 (support) and $100,000 (resistance) to determine the next big move in the market.

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