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Bitcoin surged nearly 8% on December 3, 2025, rebounding to around $91,440 after dipping below $90,000, as Bitfinex analysts flagged “seller exhaustion” amid extreme deleveraging. The exchange’s latest Alpha report, released December 1, signals a potential local bottom, with reduced selling pressure paving the way for stabilization and an upside bounce.
Decoding Seller Exhaustion in BTC
Seller exhaustion marks the fade of bearish momentum after prolonged declines, where panic sales taper off and supply thins on exchanges. Bitfinex’s analysis highlights:
Deleveraging Peak: A $19 billion leverage wipeout has slashed market risk, creating a “leaner leverage base” less prone to liquidation cascades.
Short-Term Holder Capitulation: Over 80% of recent sales at a loss, with entity-adjusted realized losses topping $400 million—eclipsing prior cycle lows.
On-Chain Clues: The Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio dipped below 1 for the third time since early 2024, mirroring bottoms in August and April.
These metrics suggest sellers are tapped out, shifting dynamics toward buyers as BTC consolidates post its October all-time high of $126,000.
Technical Backing for a Bounce
Bitcoin’s resilience shines through:
Support Holding: Key levels at $88,000–$90,000 absorbed the sell-off, with small candlesticks indicating waning volatility.
Momentum Shift: RSI and MACD show early reversal signals, while spot volumes stabilize amid ETF inflows.
Buy-Side Uptick: Rising on-chain activity and ARK Invest’s $93 million buys in BTC-related assets bolster sentiment.
Macro tailwinds add fuel: The U.S. Treasury General Account’s cash release post-shutdown and anticipated Fed QT end on December 10 could inject liquidity.
Trader Playbook: Opportunities and Pitfalls
A relief rally could target $95,000–$100,000 resistance, ideal for swing trades. Yet risks loom:
Volatility Spikes: High leverage remnants could spark flash crashes on macro jolts.
Bear Traps: Bears eye renewed pressure if BTC fails $90,000, especially with December’s historical 4.69% average return.
Monitor volumes, STH cost basis ($111,900), and on-chain flows for confirmation.
Bulls Gain Ground Amid Lingering Caution
Bitfinex’s call echoes Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick, who deems the 30% correction “complete,” eyeing a year-end rally. While cycle skeptics question $125,000+ targets, exhaustion metrics tilt bullish short-term.
Takeaway: With sellers exhausted and deleveraging done, Bitcoin’s 8% snapback hints at a relief rally. Traders: Eye $100K upside, but stay nimble—December’s quiet norms meet evolving dynamics. The bottom may be in; the bounce awaits.
