Bitcoin Hashrate Slides 4% in December—VanEck Sees Signs of a Bullish Turn

Bitcoin’s network hashrate declined approximately 4% in the 30 days through mid-December 2025—the steepest drop since April 2024—amid tightening miner margins and regional shutdowns, according to a new report from asset manager VanEck. Rather than a bearish omen, analysts view this as a potential contrarian bullish indicator signaling miner capitulation.

Hashrate, the total computational power securing the Bitcoin network, serves as a key gauge of miner participation and profitability. Declines often reflect inefficient operators shutting down amid lower BTC prices, higher costs, or policy pressures, reducing overall selling pressure as weaker miners exit.

In their “Mid-December 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck” report, VanEck’s Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush attribute much of the drop to the offline of roughly 1.3 gigawatts of capacity in China, potentially repurposing power for AI/high-performance computing—a shift that could permanently remove up to 10% of global hashrate. Breakeven electricity costs for popular rigs like the Antminer S19 XP fell sharply from $0.12/kWh in late 2024 to ~$0.077/kWh by mid-December, underscoring strained economics.

Historically, such compression has preceded stronger BTC performance. Since 2014, negative 30-day hashrate growth correlated with positive 90-day forward returns 65% of the time (vs. 54% during rises). Over 180 days following 90-day declines, returns were positive 77% of the time with greater magnitude.

Amid Bitcoin’s recent consolidation near $88,000, institutional accumulation provides counterbalance: digital asset treasuries added ~42,000 BTC from mid-November to mid-December, the strongest pace since summer 2025.

Investors are watching for:

* Hashrate stabilization or rebound as efficient miners dominate

* Easing miner selling and sustained institutional buying

* Price holding key supports amid potential difficulty adjustments

While short-term volatility persists, VanEck suggests the hashrate slide may mark a healthy market reset, paving the way for renewed upward momentum in 2026.