Average Bitcoin ETF Investor Turns Underwater Amid Heavy Outflows

Investors in U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are now largely underwater, with the average purchase price exceeding Bitcoin’s current trading levels amid accelerated outflows and price declines as of February 2, 2026.

Analyses from Galaxy Research, Bianco Research, and 10x Research indicate that the average cost basis for spot Bitcoin ETF investors stands around $90,200 per BTC. With Bitcoin trading near $76,800–$77,700 (after dipping to lows around $74,500–$75,000 over the weekend and early Monday), this translates to average paper losses of approximately 15% (roughly $13,400 per BTC), marking the first widespread negative returns since the products’ 2024 launch.

Heavy redemptions have fueled the pressure: The 11 major spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $2.8 billion in net outflows over the past two weeks (including $1.49 billion in one week and $1.32 billion the prior), per CoinGlass and SoSoValue data. January 2026 saw sustained negative flows, with January totals around $1.6 billion (third-worst month on record), contributing to a broader reversal—cumulative net outflows reached $6.18 billion from November through January. BlackRock’s IBIT and others led recent exits, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid macro uncertainty, Fed policy concerns under Kevin Warsh’s nomination, and correlated weakness in equities and other assets.

These outflows exacerbate downward spirals: Redemptions force ETF issuers to sell underlying BTC, amplifying volatility in thin markets and contributing to Bitcoin’s slide below key supports. While some late entrants face steeper losses, long-term holders and institutions show resilience, with cumulative inflows since inception still positive at over $55–$56 billion.

Ethereum and altcoins mirrored the caution, though declines were less severe. Analysts view the pullback as macro- and flow-driven rather than a fundamental collapse, with Bitcoin’s network activity, institutional adoption, and scarcity intact long-term. However, persistent outflows could signal further capitulation if sentiment doesn’t stabilize.

Investors should track ETF flow data, Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim $80,000+, and upcoming U.S. economic indicators for signs of reversal or deepened pressure in this volatile environment.