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On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has raised alarms that Bitcoin may have entered a bear market as early as November 2025—roughly two months ago—according to head of research Julio Moreno. Speaking on the Milk Road show, Moreno highlighted a series of bearish signals that have persisted without recovery, challenging optimistic forecasts for strong growth in 2026.
Key Indicators Pointing to Bearish Shift
Moreno noted that most metrics in CryptoQuant’s bull score index—a composite tracking network activity, investor profitability, demand growth, and market liquidity—turned negative in early November. The decisive confirmation came when Bitcoin’s price fell below its one-year moving average, a classic technical marker distinguishing bull from bear phases.
Potential Downside and Cycle Context
Based on Bitcoin’s realized price (the average acquisition cost of current holders), Moreno estimates a possible bear market bottom in the $56,000–$60,000 range sometime in 2026. This would represent a roughly 55% drawdown from the all-time high near $126,000—shallower than past cycles but still significant. Demand growth has slowed sharply after peaks driven by spot ETFs, election outcomes, and corporate treasuries.
Current Market Snapshot
As of January 2, 2026, Bitcoin trades around $88,500–$89,000, consolidating in a tight $85,000–$90,000 range with low holiday volumes. While this sideways action reflects muted momentum, it contrasts with broader expectations of institutional-driven rallies.
Investor Implications
– **Risk Management Essential** — High volatility likely persists; use stop-losses and avoid over-leverage.
– **Accumulation Opportunities** — Dips could appeal to long-term holders if historical patterns hold.
– **Monitor Closely** — Watch for renewed demand via ETF inflows or on-chain recovery.
Though bear markets historically pave the way for future bulls, Moreno’s analysis underscores caution. Bitcoin’s cycle may be resetting earlier than anticipated, urging investors to prioritize data over sentiment in 2026.
