Crypto Bull Market: Are We Nearing the Final Stretch? Glassnode Analysts Weigh In

As Bitcoin hovers around $113,500 and Ethereum trades at $4,250, Glassnode’s August 2025 analysis suggests the crypto bull market, ignited by the April 2024 Bitcoin halving, may be entering its late phase. On-chain metrics reveal signs of market maturity, with Bitcoin’s price down 8.8% from its $124,474 peak, signaling potential demand exhaustion. Investors are urged to tread cautiously amid rising volatility.

Glassnode highlights key indicators: Bitcoin’s Realized Profit to Loss Ratio spiked to 39.8 post-July’s all-time high, cooling to 7.3, indicating profit-taking by short-term holders (STHs). STH profitability has dropped to 70%, aligning with mid-bull cycle norms, while long-term holders (LTHs) have realized unprecedented profits, mirroring the 2015–2018 cycle. Exchange balances fell from 3.1M to 2.7M BTC since July 2024, but ETF custody offsets this, stabilizing supply at 3M BTC.

Altcoin open interest hit $60.2 billion before a $2.6 billion correction, with Ethereum’s futures volume dominance at 67%, reflecting capital rotation. Social media buzz and leveraged trading signal speculative froth, increasing downside risks. A recent 80,000 BTC distribution by an early investor via Galaxy Digital’s OTC services tested liquidity, yet 70% of Bitcoin supply remains in profit.

Glassnode advises monitoring Bitcoin’s $110,000–$116,000 “air gap” for support and Ethereum’s $4,200 level. Investors should avoid over-leveraging and watch for regulatory shifts, like the CFTC’s Crypto Sprint, or macroeconomic cues from Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. While the bull run may extend into Q4 2025, driven by ETF inflows and institutional interest, cautious risk management is key as volatility looms.